I’ve always been envious of business people, for the simple reason that there’s a clear answer as to whether they have been successful or not – either there’s money in the bank at the end of the day, or there’s not. I, of course, realize it’s more complex than this (and the book I discuss below makes this pretty clear), but at least there’s a clear metric for success. Sometimes this is true in education – a child can or cannot read or do math – but often it’s much more murky, like, how engaged are our children in their learning, or how well do they respond to setbacks? There are tools academics have developed for measuring such learning, and we of course make anecdotal observations, but they are not as cut and dry as a dollar in the bank, and not simple to track. Non-academic development gets harder to assess when the influences are about more than what happens in school (i.e. with influences from home and one’s social environment), like, how is the child’s ruchniyut development? Or, how is their character development?
And while The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing, by Michael Mauboussin doesn’t quite give me the answer to those questions, it does actually help a lot in thinking about the kind of things that are in our control (skill), the kind that aren’t (luck), and the many illusions we have about each. Mauboussin was particularly helpful for a person like me, with no background in statistics, explaining concepts in about as clear a language as I could hope for (that didn’t mean I wasn’t lost for a section or two!). Even when I didn’t understand the math, he did a great job of explaining the underlying concept. I’ve heard more than one person say that the greatest failing of the educational system is not teaching kids about probabilities and basic statistics (here’s one example), and this book makes it clear why.
I loved, for example, how he decimated the research in Jim Collins’ book, Good to Great, (a book which I’ve learned a lot from , by the way), a business cult classic. He shows how Collins only looked at companies that did well (survived), and then looked backwards to identify what about them was successful, ignoring whether other companies had done the same and failed. It is such a powerful perspective, one we frequently forget to ask when trying to model ourselves on success stories, and as such, a useful cognitive tool.
Another is his close analysis of the relationship between luck and skill in various sports. If you are someone who loves sports (maybe someone who bets on sports?), I think you’ll find this fascinating. Take a guess – of the following five sports, which has the most skill, and which has the most luck (and as such, how much you can predict the likely outcome)? The five are: soccer, baseball, basketball, hockey and football. Now, write out your answer before you read further.
The answer: basketball has the most pure skill, and hockey the most luck. Why? You’ll have to read the book, but I’ll be honest, I’d never have guessed the right answers.
If you’re a math person, this book is certainly for you, if a little beneath your level. If you’re not, most if it is thoughtful, interesting, and comprehensible. If you have to ever make decisions in your life (that’s all of you!), it’s probably worth reading.
Just Because I Liked It:
- I’m intrigued by Patsy Rodenburg’s notion of first, second and third circle, which describe the different kinds of presence people show up with and why. You can watch a short video here. My gratitude to Orly Rachamim for introducing me to this idea.
- I’ve never read the celebrated Yiddish writer Chaim Grade, though I’ve heard his name many times. After reading this review of a new translation of his work I’m inspired to give him a try!